Yesterday, Thursday, presidential candidate Muharrem Ince detonated a big surprise, which confused and complicated the Turkish election papers. announcing his withdrawal from the presidential race.
Ince had previously hinted at the possibility of his withdrawal from the presidential race 48 hours before polling day, after he was widely criticized for his candidacy, which suggested that he might strike a deal with the most prominent candidate in the ranks of the opposition, the head of the Republican People’s Party, and the candidate of the opposition People’s Alliance, Kamal Kılıçdaroğlu.
However, what Inge said in the hands of announcing the withdrawal does not suggest any kind of political deals or gains as was expected or possible. On the contrary, unlike his personality, he left, succumbing to the blackmail he was subjected to.
What Inge said in the hands of announcing the withdrawal does not suggest any kind of political deals or gains as was expected or possible. On the contrary, unlike his personality, he came out succumbing to the blackmail he was subjected to.
Engh said; He was exposed in the last 45 days to what he had not been exposed to for 45 years in political practice, and here he means the pressures exerted on him to withdraw from the elections. In favor of Kilicdaroglu On the one hand, and accusing him of serving Erdogan and coordinating with him, on the other hand, by his candidacy.
Engh said; He withdraws lest he be accused of being the cause The opposition loses the electionmeaning Kılıçdaroğlu, but his withdrawal, in fact, seemed to be motivated mainly by blackmail that he was subjected to by a businessman who opened an account on Twitter, in which he used to publish materials and videos accusing political figures of corruption, and threatened Ince himself to publish explicit videos of him, and he passed some pictures from them.
Trying to influence politics through sexual, moral and other scandals is nothing new in Turkey. In May 2010, a sexual clip of two people claiming to be the head of the Republican People’s Party at the time, Deniz Baykal, and one of his party’s deputies, was published on the Internet, which prompted him to resign from his position. In the same period – which was before the 2011 legislative elections – more than 10 leading figures in the National Movement Party resigned, due to similar videos.
Months ago, a fugitive businessman accused of having ties to the mafia named Sedat Bikar appeared in repeated videos, in which he issued accusations of corruption against former and current politicians, before he later stopped publishing. During the past few days, an account appeared on Twitter for a businessman whose family traditionally had good relations with the Justice and Development, defaming many political figures, and it was this account that Inge promised to publish the aforementioned video.
Perhaps the most important question about what happened, to which everyone seeks an answer: What is the impact of the withdrawal of Engeh in this manner and at this time on the course of the elections and their results in terms of the chances of the other candidates?
Unfortunately, this important question does not have a clear and satisfactory answer, as there are several factors that overlap and interact to determine the paths of the answer. Among these factors is the content of the speech of the withdrawing candidate, his directing to his supporters, the reactions of the various parties, and the convictions that have been generated or will be generated among the voters, especially the supporters of Engeh.
In theory, Ince’s withdrawal is supposed to benefit Kilicdaroglu and enhance his chances, given the similarity between the two ideologically and politically, and the great similarity between their supporters, but the practical reality may not coincide with that.
In theory, Ince’s withdrawal is supposed to benefit Kilicdaroglu and enhance his chances, given the similarity between the two ideologically and politically, and the great similarity between their supporters, but the practical reality may not coincide with that.--
The first, and if he accused Gulen’s group of fabricating charges and videos of him, he indicated that parties in the opposition had seized on these fabrications and spread them to them, just as he did not call on his supporters to support any of the remaining three candidates, in addition to that his words included suggestions that the aim of pressure on him to withdraw in favor of Kilicdaroglu, Therefore, he said that he was withdrawing “so that it would not be said that I was the cause of their defeat.”
On the other hand, those who remain among the man’s supporters – and his popularity has declined and his supporters have decreased significantly recently – are mostly angry at Kilicdaroglu, and this is a disagreement that makes it difficult to vote for him. In addition, the latter reached the presidency of the Republican People after the aforementioned scandal of its former president, Baykal, which gives additional negative indications of the withdrawal of his competitor (formerly in the Republican People and today in the presidential race) in a similar way.
Accordingly, one of the most important determinants of pullback reversals is the election scene, It is the extent to which the street is convinced that there is a role for Kılıçdaroğlu himself in the scene that took place. Here, the importance of the Turkish president’s statement, in which he said; The latter’s role in the event “may become clear on Friday or Saturday.”
It is also important to monitor how Ince responded to Kilicdaroglu’s invitation for him to join the “Sofra Ibrahim Al-Khalil”, that is, the opposition people’s coalition, as well as the possibility of spreading additional scandals to other politicians, according to what the aforementioned businessman threatens.
Finally, there were rumors that the fourth candidate, Sinan Ogan, might also be about to withdraw after canceling his electoral activity, something that Ogan himself denied, but if it happened, it was supposed to theoretically benefit Kilicdaroglu, but it would confirm the idea of the existence of hands seeking to engineer the electoral scene in favor of a competitor. Erdogan is the president, which means that there may be a reaction to this in favor of the Turkish president in order to protect the country’s sovereignty and the autonomy of the elections.
Based on all of the above, and contrary to some expectations and some previous opinion polls, most of the votes of Ince’s supporters may not go to Kilicdaroglu, but to Sinan Ogan, while some may boycott and some may vote for Kilicdaroglu, while others may vote for Erdogan himself.
The impact of the withdrawal on the results of the presidential elections should take into account not only the voting tendencies of the current supporters of Inge, but also the supporters of other parties, foremost of which are the Republican people and the conservative parties allied with it, as well as the undecided category that is able to decide the elections, especially if they are strengthened. The suggestion that there is a direct role for Kilicdaroglu in what happened.
More than that, we believe that the impact of the withdrawal on the results of the presidential elections should take into account not only the voting tendencies of the current supporters of Inge, but also the supporters of other parties, led by the Republican people and the conservative parties allied with it, as well as the undecided category that is able to decide the elections. Especially if the suggestion of a direct role for Kilicdaroglu in what happened is reinforced.
From this perspective, Engeh’s withdrawal relatively enhances the chances of resolving the presidential elections from the first round, but does not completely resolve them, as it is likely that the presidential elections will still require a run-off despite what happened.
All of the above confirms once again that we are facing the toughest, hottest and most sensitive elections in Turkey in decades, and the country appears with it and after it is really at a crossroads, and this may be among the reasons for desperation in attempts to win the elections, including resorting to hitting below the belt. Therefore, the remaining hours until the election date will be extremely important to follow up on the course of events and their impact on the electoral process.