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- • India is committed to reducing carbon emissions in accordance with the global response to the challenge of climate change
- • India is committed to reducing the emissions intensity of its GDP by 45% by 2030
- • With the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, the pace of energy development in the country was affected
- • Companies manufacturing the solar energy sector faced delays in purchasing materials
- • Offshore wind capacity is expected to be added only after 2030
The second edition of India’s Optimum Power Generation Capacity Mix Report 2029-2030 reports that the country’s approach to sector growth is in line with global demand, and is in line with the shift towards clean generation.
The Asian country has emerged as a major force in the global energy economy, according to the report issued by the Central Electricity Authority (cea.nic.in) of the Ministry of Electricity in New Delhi.
As part of the world’s response to the climate change crisis, India is committed to reducing carbon emissions in line with the global response to confront this phenomenon, according to information monitored by the specialized energy platform.
In this regard, New Delhi is committed to reducing the emissions intensity of its GDP by 45% by 2030, from the 2005 level and achieving about 50% of the cumulative capacity of installed electric power from non-fossil fuel-based energy resources by 2030.
Between 2005 and 2022, per capita electricity consumption doubled from 631 units (1 kilowatt-hour) to 1,255 units, making the country the third largest electricity market in the world.
As a result of the outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic, the pace of energy development in the country has temporarily slowed down. The actual electricity scenario, recorded during April and May for the fiscal year 2022-2023, indicates a recovery from the repercussions of the Covid pandemic, as electricity consumption is higher than the trends. recorded in the recent past.
As a result of the expectation of steady economic growth, there is plenty of room for demand to rise.
The future is carbon neutral
To move towards a carbon-neutral future, the world is witnessing today several types of technological disruptions that may lead to the replacement of heat-based generation with electricity production from renewable energy sources and energy storage technology.
This has been aided by the downward trend in the cost of solar panels and newer technology options, such as battery energy storage systems.
To achieve the goal of achieving 50% of installed capacity based on non-fossil fuels by 2030, large-scale integration of variable renewable energy sources is expected, as generation based on renewable energy is intermittent in nature and is not distributable.
This, in turn, requires balancing on the part of conventional power plants to manage generation based on variable renewable energy, according to a report published by the Central Electricity Authority (cea.nic.in) of the Indian Ministry of Electricity, on May 3.
Since coal-fired generation is inherently inelastic, a multi-pronged approach, including the use of pumped storage stations and batteries, periodic commissioning of gas stations, optimization of hydroelectric generation, etc., will be necessary to ensure safe and reliable operation of the electricity grid.
India’s Optimal Electricity Generation Capacity Mix Report 2029-2030 has appropriately considered the influence of various factors, such as transmission and distribution losses reduction, energy efficiency improvement measures, green hydrogen production, electric vehicle penetration, rooftop solar, solar pumps, etc. At the request of the country in the future.
In addition, the report took into account the initiative of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi to launch the National Hydrogen Mission on India’s 75th Independence Day, as India is expected to become a green hydrogen hub with the goal of producing 10 million tons of green hydrogen by 2030.
Changes included in the revised version of the report
The report, published in January 2020, predicted India’s least cost-optimal generation capacity mix for 2030, based on the 19th Electric Power Survey Panel’s projections.
According to the previous study, the potential installed capacity by the end of 2029-2030 was expected to be about 817,254 megawatts consisting of 60,977 megawatts, according to data seen by the specialized energy platform.
This installed capacity included water imports of 5,856 megawatts, pumped storage stations of 10,151 megawatts, small hydropower of 5,000 megawatts, coal of 2,66,911 megawatts, gas of 25,80 megawatts, and nuclear energy of 18,980 megawatts.
In addition to this, solar energy 280,155 megawatts, wind 140,000 megawatts and biomass 10,000 megawatts, along with battery storage capacity of 27,000 megawatt-hours and 108,000 megawatt-hours, to meet the expected peak demand for electricity of 340 gigawatts. And the electric energy requirements are 2400 terawatt-hours, according to the report of the 19th Electric Energy Survey Committee.
The expected installed capacity from renewable energy sources, excluding solar, wind, biomass and small hydro, in the year 2029-2030, is estimated at 435 GW.
Electricity demand forecast in India
The latest demand forecast, as per the report of the Electric Power Survey Panel 20, has been taken into account in India’s Optimal Electricity Generation Capacity Mix Report 2029-2030, released by the Central Electricity Authority (cea.nic.in) of the Indian Ministry of Electricity, on May 3. .--
It was emphasized that when forecasting the demand for electricity, the impact of various factors is taken into account, such as reducing transmission and distribution losses, measures to improve energy efficiency, green hydrogen production, the spread of electric cars, solar energy on roofs, electrification of homes, and so on.
Results of the report of the 20th Electric Energy Survey Committee:
- • Expected peak demand for electricity at 334.8 gigawatts and electric energy needs of 2279.7 billion units for the year 2029-2030.
- • The impact of electric vehicles on overall Indian demand, 2029-2030, is likely to be 3 GW in peak demand and 15 billion units in power requirements.
- • All energy requirements in India due to capping solar capacity are estimated at 34.8 billion units in 2029-2030.
- • All energy requirements in India under solar pump installations have been estimated to be 2.4 billion units in 2029-2030.
- • The country’s incremental energy requirement on account of green hydrogen production of about 10 million tons (taking into account only 5 million tons loaded on the grid) has been estimated at 250 billion units by fiscal year 2029-2030.
According to the latest assessment by the Central Electricity Authority, the capacity of the coal plants, which are under construction and expected to operate during 2022-2030, is about 26,900 megawatts.
It should be noted that there is a total capacity of coal plants of 6,920 MW under tender (dated 28.02.23), according to the Central Electricity Authority (cea.nic.in) of the Indian Ministry of Electricity, on May 3.
In addition, the coal-based capacity of the sector’s central and state utilities, totaling 9,420 MW which is slated for future development, if required, has been taken into account in preparing India’s Optimum Power Generation Capacity Mix Report 2029-2030.
Hydroelectric and nuclear energy
According to the latest assessment by the Indian Atomic Energy Department, capacity of 8,700 MW is under construction and an additional 7,000 MW has been approved in principle. It is possible that the capacity of the nuclear power plants under construction is only (8 thousand and 700 megawatts), and that it will be completed by 2029-2030.
According to the latest assessment by the Central Electricity Authority, the hydroelectric power capacity, which is under construction and potentially yielding benefits in 2022-30, is considered to be around 14,274 MW.
The evaluation took into account the capacity of hydroelectric projects and pump storage stations, which total 638 megawatts and 11,460 megawatts, respectively.
Solar and wind energy
India’s Optimum Power Generation Capacity Mix Report 2029-2030 looked at prospective solar and wind power plant capacity at district level, based on the latest state level capabilities provided by the Ministry of New and Renewable Energy.
The Indian Ministry of Energy indicated that cumulative installed capacity of up to 100 GW could be achieved by 2029-2030 from wind-based projects, as seen by the specialized energy platform.
According to the ministry’s strategy, offshore wind capacity is expected to be added only after 2030, hence no offshore wind-based capacity for 2022-2030 was considered in the report.
Dispensing with coal-based capacity
Coal-based power generation capacity of 2,121.5 MW is expected to be laid off, due to the failure to submit any FGD installation plan to comply with India’s new environmental reforms.
Coal-fired power plants with a capacity of 304 megawatts were dispensed during the year 2022-2023.
Battery energy storage system
India’s Optimal Electricity Generation Capacity Mix 2029-2030 report considered district-level battery energy storage system investment options in studies for 2022-2030.
The capacities of the different battery energy storage systems were taken into account, i.e. 2 hours, 4 hours, 5 hours, 6 hours for the duration of the plan.
The cost of battery energy storage was also obtained from the latest projections available from various manufacturers, according to a report published by the Central Electricity Authority (cea.nic.in) of the Indian Ministry of Electricity on May 3.
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