Since yesterday, the Lebanese political forces have sought to know the details of what took place in the meeting that brought together the candidate of Hezbollah and the Syrian regime, Suleiman Franjieh, and the Saudi ambassador to Beirut, Walid al-Bukhari, in the latter’s house, and its local and regional implications, in parallel with attempts to explore what will lead to external developments, especially the Jeddah summit. The Arab League to which the head of the Syrian regime, Bashar al-Assad, was invited, and what will result from it, in light of the constant talk about a summit that will bring together al-Assad and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman before the summit date on the 19th of this month.
Internally, the parties are following the internal efforts and endeavors led by Deputy Speaker of Parliament Elias Bou Saab, and the external ones led by the State of Qatar, which aim to reach an understanding between the Free Patriotic Movement, the Lebanese Forces and the Kataeb parties, and opposition MPs about a candidate to support in the face of Franjieh, in light of a conflict over progress in the elections. These deliberations and that the negotiations have become about a number of names, one of which can be agreed upon.
It seemed clear that a diplomatic movement was led by the ambassadors of the five, specifically Washington and Qatar, in addition to the Iranian movement in Lebanon and Syria, to keep pace with the repercussions of the agreement with Saudi Arabia in Syria and Lebanon, which reflects a new attempt to put the contradictory visions, which have been going on since before the Paris meeting, on the line of Lebanese discussions, while the powers dealt with Political stances with the positions of Paris, Doha, Washington, Riyadh and Tehran from the point of view of contradictory interests.
More importantly, and in light of the talk about the possibility of Riyadh agreeing to Franjieh, the fears carried by some opposition forces in recent days seemed to be indications of the possibility of the party’s candidate and Assad, with the Iranian presence in Beirut and Damascus and the Saudi retreat under the pressure of a settlement with Tehran, matched by the contradictory positions of the opposition partisan forces. She seems confident that the election of Suleiman Franjieh as president is difficult and not possible, based on the unified Christian position regarding the refusal of his accession, with the validity of a theory that indicates the impossibility of the head of the Free Patriotic Movement, Representative Gebran Bassil, under the pressure of his embarrassing position within the Christian street, accepting Franjieh’s election. They deal with the French settlement initiative as a thing of the past. What is going on between the French Foreign Ministry and the Elysee contributes to consolidating its conviction that Paris is close to mourning its initiative, after the rise of Sunni-Christian pressure, with the spiritual authority, against Macron’s management of the Lebanon file.
On the other hand, the American statement on Lebanon, which was issued by the US State Department a few days ago, was not only aimed at dealing a strong blow to the French initiative regarding the Lebanese presidential file, but also carried a signal foreshadowing the start of adopting a clearer American diplomatic movement towards Lebanon, after a retreat that began since Signing the demarcation of the maritime borders between Lebanon and Israel. This means, therefore, that this movement will appear more on the ground of Lebanese events and developments, although this does not mean that presidential solutions are within reach.
And there are those who have come to believe that the American movement will be in agreement and coordination with Saudi Arabia and Qatar, whose delegation completed its second presidential mission, before likely returning for a third round after the end of the work of the Arab Summit, which will allocate Lebanon with major and clear items. However, before entering the Lebanese presidential file, a careful reading of the external and regional conditions must be made, especially since the internal blockage of the horizon prompts reliance on an external rescue that has its various conditions and complications.
-A few days ago, US National Security Adviser Jack Sullivan visited Riyadh, at the head of a technical and intelligence delegation. It seems that the visit reached clear understandings with the Saudi side regarding the region’s files, on top of which is the activation of the strategic project related to linking the Middle East and India.
-It has become clear that the United States and Saudi Arabia are closely monitoring the existence of opposition tendencies to the Iranian-Saudi agreement among some officials of the Revolutionary Guard, in exchange for Khamenei’s absolute support for it. This explains why Khamenei assigned some tasks to the Secretary-General of the Supreme National Security Council, Ali Shamkhani, based on an Iranian constant that says that Khamenei wants to secure the continuity of the existing regime, revitalize the economic wheel to calm the situation and withdraw the fuse of internal conflict, especially with the new Iranian generation, which formed the backbone of the popular movements. during the past months.
In addition, Washington has reduced its interest in the nuclear file on the grounds that Iran will not be able to use a nuclear bomb. Not in the Gulf after the agreements that took place, not in Israel for fear of harming Jerusalem, the Palestinian territories, or even southern Lebanon. The understandings and settlements in Iraq remain able to advance the Iranian economic movement.
This performance is now being reflected in Iran’s foreign policy through Iranian Foreign Minister Hussein Amir Abdollahian’s recent visit to Lebanon and Syria, first through openness to political forces and their call for dialogue with the Iranian guest, and secondly through its rumors that Tehran does not interfere or support one candidate over another. .
Returning to the Saudi position, which Franjieh’s allies seek to use, there are indications through which the true Saudi presidential position can be known. The first relates to the positions of the opponents of Franjieh, specifically Jumblatt, Geagea, Gemayel, and the forces of change, and the other indicator is the convergence of the Egyptian and Qatari positions on bringing in a moderate president, and this context was translated by the visits of the Egyptian and Qatari delegates, and these tours confirmed that the two sides were in agreement with Riyadh, and that they aimed to touch the essence of the existing contract regarding the presidential entitlement. And the names presented, and focused in particular on ensuring the continuity of Lebanese stability, the importance of the Lebanese army in this regard, and the need to assist it in its mission.
Naturally, the Qatari delegation returning after the summit moves with international and regional support, particularly Washington and Riyadh, without provoking Tehran. Therefore, Franjieh’s reception in Bukhari’s circle can only be explained within the framework of social decency coinciding with the Saudi openness to Iran and Syria.
