Source: major
Ammar Nehme wrote in “The Brigade”:
Since the situation in the Palestinian territories erupted after the recent Israeli crime in the Gaza Strip and the response of the resistance to it, questions have been raised again about whether the Lebanese Front will be interested in escalation, even partially, after the rockets (supposedly of unknown origin) that were launched weeks ago at the occupied territories as a result of the attacks. on Jerusalem.
These are questions that arise with every new event, and they are not realistic in any way, since the Lebanese front is governed by many factors, on top of which is the Israeli intention itself to escalate, which has not been available for many years as a result of the deterrence force in its face.
Inside Palestine, the theory of “unity of squares” emerged, which many advocated since the events of the occupied territories in May 2021, but it became clear that it lacks realism, whether inside occupied Palestine in the Green Line lands, i.e. the lands occupied in 1948, or those occupied in 1967, or Between the Israeli government and its enemies outside Palestine in Lebanon and Syria.
Two years ago, the land was inflamed under the feet of the Israeli in all the occupied territories and in Gaza, and the civil popular uprising was in the lands of the Green Line, and this was interspersed with moral skirmishes from Lebanon, which the Israeli government fears and does not want to open the front against its resistance.
As for last August, the Israeli government entered into a battle against the “Islamic Jihad Movement” alone, and the battle resulted in a painful blow to the Jihad, but with the conclusion that the Israeli deterrence capacity is eroding every day.
Today, Israel tried to neutralize everyone in order to single out the jihad and partially succeeded while the resistances united in the “joint operations room”, but the Palestinians inside and in the West Bank did not move, just as the rockets of unknown origin that were launched a few weeks ago after the attacks on Jerusalem did not appear.
It is clear that the Israeli government, in one of the most extreme and fascist versions since the establishment of the entity in 1948, wants to escape forward, just as it aims to put the escalation in perspective.
--And at a moment marked by Israeli internal political floundering, between an unstable government and an opposition movement besieging it from its left, right and from within, this attack itself comes in light of the dilemma suffered by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his ruling coalition, whose popularity has deteriorated dramatically in a few months and is now waging suicidal battles. His coalition is on multiple fronts, starting with the coup against the judiciary in the midst of a declining economic situation, in parallel with the erosion of the Israeli deterrence capacity.
From here, the great decline in the popularity of the ruling coalition and the danger of its fall caused Netanyahu, fleeing to the front, to resort to his crime and perhaps change it so that his rival Benny Gantz, who became a favorite among the entity’s public as prime minister, would not overtake him, so he submitted to the terms of his partner in the more right-wing extremist government, the Minister of Defense. The nationalist Itamar Ben Gvir, who stopped participating in government meetings and voting in favor of draft resolutions in the Knesset, because of his protest against the weak Israeli response to the rocket fire from the Gaza Strip, and also threatened not to vote in favor of the general budget, which would mean the fall of the government. So he suspended the boycott of government meetings after the crime, and at the same time demanded more assassinations!
The new Israeli crime, which Netanyahu sees as having a lower price for him than the deterioration of his popularity, and his government itself was built on the basis of implementing the annexation of Palestinian territories, the Judaization of Jerusalem and blocking the road to the idea of a two-state solution once and for all. A large and wide dramatic decline.
However, major factors govern the Lebanese front.
Hezbollah did not renounce the missiles that were launched weeks ago, but this is one thing and opening the front is something else entirely, which will only be required by a dramatic development such as crossing major red lines, as in the case of the massive encroachment on Jerusalem and Judaization, or resorting to mass exodus operations, “transfer” on Similar to the stages of the emergence of the entity, or in the event that the Israeli government itself resorted to expanding the picnic and military strike below its belt in Iran or in Lebanon, which is not what that government is within its reach today, let alone its inability to do.
Thus, the Palestinian repercussions will not be important for Lebanon, which lacks internal consensus and authorization for the party to do what it deems appropriate in the conflict with Israel, which the party takes into account without its military need for it.
However, Israel’s violation of the rules of engagement, even without a major military escalation against “Hezbollah” and Lebanon, will lead to a military response from the party according to circumstances and estimates. Without that, there is no fear of dramatic developments in the south.
The important thing here is that eyes must remain fixed on the Lebanese waters, because depriving Lebanon of its marine wealth will undoubtedly lead to an escalation of matters and perhaps war, which is something that Hezbollah was just around the corner from, before Lebanon reached last October. to an exploration agreement with the Israeli government under American auspices.
